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A Model for Stripe Rust Growth with Two Fungicidal Effects

Stripe rust, also known as yellow rust, is a disease caused by the fungus Puccinia striiformis that affects host crops, primarily barley and wheat. It is the most prevalent strain of wheat rust within North America, and can account for a significant amount of yield loss within a harvest. In order to estimate the dynamic yield loss of a wheat crop infected by stripe rust undergoing fungicide application, a single-host, single-pathogen compartmental model is introduced using a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Two fungicidal effects are considered: preventative and anti-sporulant, which reduce susceptibility and inhibit the further spread of an infection, respectively. The stability conditions associated with the disease-free and endemic equilibria are identified. Numerical simulations are then used to examine the time-dependent behavior of fungicide efficacy and approximate yield loss. Finally, sensitivity indices are calculated to study the impact of fungicide efficacy and retention relative to plant growth.

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Jonathan Burkow – Arizona State University
Anubhav Sing – Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico
Vicente Valle – University of Texas – Pan American
Josean Velazquez – University of Puerto Rico
Dustin Padilla – Arizona State University
Juan Renova – Arizona State University
Leon Arriola – University of Wisconsin
Derdei Bichara – Arizona State University