Modeling the Impact of Batrachochytrium Dendrobatidis in the Life History Dynamics of Eleutherodactylus Coqui Under Seasonality
Eleutherodactylus Coqui a native amphibian in Puerto Rico and invasive species in Hawaii can be infected by an endemic disease called Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Puerto Rico and Hawaii have two main seasons, a wet/warm season and a dry/cool season, although not at the same period of time. E. coqui reproduces the entire year but tend to breed higher during the wet/warm season. In contrast, it has been found that the disease tends to affect them more in the dry/cool season. The Hawaiian government wants to eradicate E. coqui populations, based on the fact that E. coqui affects native species and has negative impact in their tourism population. The use of chemical and biological agents, such as B. dendrobatidis has been introduced without successful results. We used two stage-structured models to represent the effects of the disease, the juvenile stage and adult stage. Since E. Coqui in Puerto Rico gets infected and dies because of the disease or predator-induced mortality, the Puerto Rican model is a susceptible-infected (SI) model. The Hawaiian model is a susceptible-infected-carrier (SIC) model due to the absence of predators in the population and consequently, longer life-span. We look at how the seasonality of the disease impacts these two stages in Puerto Rico and in Hawaii. We perform sensitivity analysis on the system equations to study the effect of the seasonality function on the transmission of the disease by the environment. Numerical results show that the infected population is higher in Puerto Rico and in Hawaii. The environmental function infers a seasonality atmosphere in Hawaii and that in Hawaii the carriers will higher than the infected population.
Glorimar Melendez-Rosario, University of Puerto Rico - Mayagüez
Karen Rios-Soto, University of Puerto Rico – Mayagüez