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The Effects of Clustered Unvaccinated Individuals on Epidemic Outbreak

An SIR epidemiological household model is constructed and studied to understand the effects that clusters of unvaccinated individuals have on the disease dynamics of a population. The model contains two levels of mixing where individuals make more intra-household than inter-household contacts. Stochastic simulations, numerical solutions are utilized to explore the model. A new extension of the basic reproductive number that incorporates more spatial information by predicting the average number of tertiary infections caused by a single infected individual is introduced to describe the threshold behavior and severity of an epidemic. Using these methods we show that clustering of unvaccinated individuals always leads to more severe epidemics.

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Hamilton Hoxie Ackerman, Boston University
Isaac J. Michaud, University of Maine
Shannon Reed, University of Missouri - Columbia
Andre Robinson, Medgar Evers College
Graduate Mentors:
Mat Gluck, University of Florida
Naala Brewer, Arizona State University
Griselle Torres-Garcia, Arizona State University
Faculty Advisor: David E. Hiebeler, University of Maine