The Cursed Duet: Dynamics of HIV-TB Co-infection in South Africa
In South Africa there is an increasing public health concern for the HIV/AIDS pandemic coupled with high tuberculosis (TB) prevalence. The progression of these infectious diseases compliments each other to produce a deadly synergistic effect. This results in devastating morbidity and mortality in communities suffering from HIV/AIDS-TB co-infection. HIV/AIDS-TB spells economic disaster for developing countries, nearly 30% of the annual household income. We use a epidemiological model to explore the co-infection transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in South Africa, specifically in adults aged 15-49. We analyze our model to gauge the extent to which the HIV/AIDS epidemic accentuates the TB epidemic. Will the TB epidemic persist without the presence or prevalence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic? Our parameter values are estimated from demographic data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis are employed to determine the parameter value(s) to which the basic reproductive number is most sensitive. We run numerical simulations to predict future trends of both the HIV/AIDS and TB epidemics.
- Poster session award recipient at the 2007 National SACNAS Convention in Kansas City, MO
Diego Chowell-Puente, Facultad de Ciencias
Brenda Jimenez-González, Instituto Tecnolígico Autonomo de Mexico
Adrian Nicholas Smith, University of Washington
Karen Riíos-Soto, University of Washington
Baojun Song, Cornell University