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An Epidemic Model of HSV-1 with Vaccination

The most common type of herpes is Herpes Simplex Virus type 1 (HSV-1), and it is commonly known to cause oral herpes - cold sores and fever blisters. Recent studies show that an HSV-1 vaccine was successful in the lab for animals such as guinea pigs and mice. It is estimated that the vaccine will be available for human use in the next couple of years. Encouraged by those studies, we have formulated a simple SVID model studying the disease transmission dynamics with treatment and vaccination. In this project we find the vaccination-treatment reproductive number, the equilibrium solutions, and their stability. We conduct sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the reproductive number. We estimate the parameters based on the previous works and perform numerical simulations. Finally, we compare different types of treatment and vaccination strategies to find an optimal combination of them and its relative cost in reducing the prevalence of HSV-1 infection in the population.

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Asela Acosta, Texas A&M International University
Efrat Bar-Zohar, Arizona State University
Sa'ul Blanco, Cornell University
Dori Luli, North Central College
Linda Q. Gao, North Central College