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The Role of Vaccination in the Control of SARS

In this paper we explore pre-outbreak and during-outbreak vaccination as control strategies for SARS epidemics. We construct a mathematical model that includes susceptible, latent (traced and untraced), infectious, quarantined/isolated, recovered, and dead classes. Using data from the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong (China), we assume different scenarios where the percentage of traced infectious contacts and untraced individuals that self-quarantine varies. We predict the minimal necessary proportion of the population that needs to be successfully vaccinated prior to an outbreak to control an epidemic. We calculate the basic reproductive number, R0, and carry out an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. The final epidemic size under different vaccination scenarios is estimated. Vaccination is shown to be a good control strategy to reduce the total epidemic size with an increased impact when combined with effective isolation of the quarantined/isolated individuals.

  • Poster session award recipient at the 2004 National SACNAS Convention in Austin, TX
  • Poster session award recipient at the 2005 AMS/MAA Joint Mathematics Meeting in Atlanta, GA

Article Number:
MTBI-01-5M

Year:
2004

Authors:
Julijana Gjorgjieva, Harvey Mudd College
Kelly Smith, Clarion University
Jessica Snyder, Georgia Institute of Technology
Gerardo Chowell, Cornell University
Fabio Sánchez, Cornell University

role_of_vaccination_in_the_control_of_sars.pdf