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A Critical Response Stochastic Model for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemics

In this work, we analyze the spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in Uruguay using three different tools: a deterministic model, a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model and an explicit stochastic simulation model. The deterministic model, a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, uses the cow as the basic epidemiological unit. We compute the basic reproductive number, R0, for a system that differentiates between beef and dairy populations of cows. R0 is used to study FMD persistence and control. In the stochastic model, the basic epidemiological unit is the farm. The impact of a policy that isolates farms is explained. The conditions for quarantine rate that eradicate the disease are computed. The computer simulation model takes into account the coordinates of farms, traffic between them, and type of farm (dairy or beef). It simulates the epidemic in Uruguay, and attempts to predict the regions of Uruguay where quarantine could be a viable national control measure in response to an index case.

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Johnsie Ortiz, Universidad de Puerto Rico-Cayey
Manuel A. Rivera, Universidad Metropolitana (PR)
Daniel Rubin, Stanford University
Israel Ruiz, Universidad de Puerto Rico-Cayey
Carlos M. Hernández, Universidad de Colima - Mexico
Carlos Castillo-Chávez, Cornell University