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The Ebola Virus: Factors Affecting the Dynamics of the Disease

We analyze an Ebola epidemic using Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (S-I-R), deterministic and stochastic models. The models include two stages for the infectious class, a recovery class, and a quarantined class. The stochastic model was analyzed using simulations. We report on factors such as epidemic size, mean time to extinction, and the number of fatalities under a wide set of parameters. An increase in the quarantine rate will reduce the size of an epidemic. However, it will not reduce the mean time to extinction of the epidemic. As you quarantine symptomatic infectives at a high rate, the individuals in the asymptomatic stage of infection will mostly spread the disease. As there is a greater difference between per capita infectivity rates, the epidemic size also increases.

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Rogelio Arreola, University of California-Irvine
Damon Dwayne McDuffy, University of Wisconsin, Stevens Point
Miriam Berenice Mejía, California State University, Long Beach
Anike Imani Oliver, Howard University, Washington D.C.