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Estimation of the Population Vaccination Effectiveness Using Urn Models

Dispersal and dormancy are two of the fundamental evolutionary mechanisms used by nature to support and generate ecological diversity. In this investigation, we focus on the role of disease-enhanced or disease-suppressed dispersal on the dynamics of populations in a multi-patch system. Single patch systems, which are capable of supporting simple and complex dynamics, are studied both analytically and numerically. The impact of disease and dispersal is also studied numerically. Our results are compared to those in the literature that focused on dispersal in disease free multi-patch systems. pulation vaccination effectiveness (PVE) is defined as the fraction of disease cases prevented by a vaccination campaign. We use occupancy urn models to estimate the PVE, and compare results for leaky, all-or-nothing and VEI (vaccine efficacy for infectiousness) vaccines using data of a measles outbreak and San Francisco current AIDS epidemic. This latter motivated by the current development of HIV vaccines of the VEI type. When applying our method to predict PVE for the San Francisco AIDS epidemic, our model predicts that PVE will he relatively low, even if the fraction of vaccinated and the efficacy of the vaccine are high.

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Carlos Barrera-Rodríguez, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México
Ariel Cintrón-Arias, University of Puerto Rico-Cayey
Angelina Espinoza-Limón, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México
Dulce Vargas-Bracamontes, Universidad de Colima, México
Carlos Hernández-Suarez, Universidad de Colima, México