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Mathematical Models to Study the Outbreaks of Ebola

Using S-I-R and S-E-I-R models, it was possible to simulate two Ebola outbreaks: the 1976 outbreak in Yambuku, Zaire and the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit, Zaire. The dynamics of these models are determined by the per-capita death rate of infected individuals and the per-capita effective contact rate of an individual contracting the disease. The basic reproductive number, R0 , determines the infectiousness of the disease. For Ebola, 1.72 ≤ R0 ≤ 8.60, and this implies that Ebola is not as infectious as previously postulated. The results of these outbreak simulations will equip scientists in future outbreaks with information that may enable them to minimize potential deaths.

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Jaime Astacio, Universidad de Puerto Rico-Humacao
DelMar Briere, Blackfeet Community College
Milton Guillén, University of California-Santa Cruz
Josué Martínez, Univerity of Texas-Austin
Francisco Rodríguez, California State University-Bakersfield
Noé Valenzuela-Campos, University of California-Davis